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Writer's pictureKev Wheeler

Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 6

Updated: Oct 13

We are starting to build data that is usable in predicting future outcomes. The information we get from the first five weeks is still not going to give us enough to be very confident in our predictions, but we should be able to start to see where we are looking correct and where we completely whiffed. NFL is a weekly league, things change very quickly. Most analysts want to tell you that whatever happened last week explains everything, but that's far from reality.


The Process

My usual process in developing these Fantasy Football Rankings is to only take data from the previous six weeks, I truly believe anything older than that holds little relevance unless there is a player returning from injury or some reason to discount the newer information. In Week 5 we are only beginning to build information we can be confident in.


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Summary of weekend Fantasy Football reports:

EXPECTED TO PLAY

* Evan Engram, Gabe Davis

* Diontae Johnson

* Joe Mixon

* Josh Downs

* James Cook

* Jaylen Warren

* Kendrick Bourne


Game Time Decision

* Michael Pittman, Anthony Richardson

* Zamir White

* Khalil Shakir

* Tyler Conklin


Out

* Brian Robinson

* Devin Singletary


Doubtful

* Jakobi Meyers


Active

* Audric Estime

* Kendre Miller

* Evan Hull

* Ian Thomas


Expected to be active

* Kimani Vidal

* Roman Wilson


Fantasy Football Weekly Rankings

When examining these fantasy football rankings - Week 6, take into consideration that we are looking at positional ranks, not flex or overall rankings. When it comes to who you start in the flex a lot will depend on your specific league rules and roster construction. If players are ranked within 3 spots of each other the difference between them is negligible, they are expected to score the same amount of points, in those cases go with your gut, flip a coin, or join our FREE Discord Channel.



wk5top12flex
Week 5 First Look Must Start's (subject to change - check rankings below)


Quarterback



Running Back

Tyler Allgeier rushed the ball six times for 12 yards and caught three passes for 13 yards in Thursday's 36-30 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons were dominant on offense on Thursday night, but the rushing game wasn't really a strong part of that, that should change against Carolina in Week 6. Bijan Robinson looks tentative and possibly nursing an injury that we don’t know about yet. Allgeier can have flex value in some weeks and massive contingency value if Bijan is out.


Tank Bigsby carried the ball 13 times for 101 yards and a touchdown while catching a 28-yard pass in a 37-34 win over the Colts in Week 5.

The Colts held Bigsby in check most of the game until he ripped off a 65-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to put the Jags up 33-20 at the time. In fact, Bigsby has broken-off a long run in Week 1 (26 yards) and Week 4 (58 yards) that have bolstered his stat-line. Without the long rushes his yards per carry is a very pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry. Travis Etienne appears to be a step slow and a bit tentative though so Bigsby will likely continue to cut into his production. 

Jaguars Week 5 RB target shares:

Travis Etienne 21 percent, Tank Bigsby 3 percent.

Now is not the time to quit on Etienne.




Bo Nix is becoming the check-down Charlie of the NFL. In Week 5, Javonte Williams had a 22 percent target share, while Jaleel McLaughlin contributed 15 percent. Both were season highs.


Tyrone Tracy Jr. ran for 129 yards on 18 carries in the Giants 29-20 win over the Seahawks. He only caught 1-of-2 targets for one yard receiving, which is surprising from a former wide receiver, but we can be sure that will come.



Colts RB Trey Sermon led the backfield in Sunday's loss to the Jaguars, with Jonathan Taylor out. But that meant just 10 carries on a pass-heavy day. Sermon ran for 38 yards and added 25 more yards on 6 receptions.





Braelon Allen continues to get touches as the backup to Breece Hall, but struggled in the loss to the Vikings. His 2.6 yards per carry average is his worst of the season. Allen will look to bounce back against the division rival Bills in Week 6.


Wide Receiver

It looks like defensive back Denzel Ward may not play for Cleveland in Week 6, which sets up great for AJ Brown coming back against the Jim Schwarz defense which features mostly single-high and man coverage. AJ Brown has been targeted on 38 percent of his routes against man coverage, just a 22 percent rate against zone. Only Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb have more yards per route run against man coverage than AJ Brown.


Garrett Wilson earned a 43.1 percent target share, ranking him second behind Justin Jefferson at 50 percent in Week 5. It was Wilson's third game with a 40 percent target share or higher in his career. @corbin_young21


Darnell Mooney caught 9-of-16 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 5, 36-30 OT win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In three games this season, Josh Downs has had target shares of 25 percent, 30 percent, 27 percent


Tank Dell has been below a 15 percent target share in every game since Week 1 (22 percent).


Dontayvion Wicks had a 27 percent target share in Week 5 which led the Packers. Bo Melton accounted for 8 percent while Tucker Kraft was at 19 percent.



Now rostered in only 46 percent of Yahoo leagues, Christian Watson is worth stashing at the end of your bench if someone dropped him in your league. The talent is real for Green Bay's third-year wide receiver. He just needs to stay healthy, hopefully this ankle injury doesn’t reignite his hamstring issues, compensation injuries are common with ankle sprains.


Tight End








Kicker


Defense/Special Teams

Since the 2021 season, Robert Saleh's first in New York, the Jets defense is first in points per drive, first in EPA per play, and third in success rate, despite playing the fourth-most snaps over that stretch.





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